After two weeks, UK and Ole Miss appear to be pretty evenly matched heading into this week's showdown. I thought I would review some team and individual stats to compare.
Scoring Offense
UK 34.5 OM 17.5
Scoring Defense
UK 33.0 OM 29.5
Total Offense
UK 342.5 OM 249.5
Total Defense
UK 420.5 OM 422.5
3rd Down Efficiency
UK 37% OM 26.1%
3rd Down Defense
UK 37% OM 53.3%
Green-Ellis - 98 yards/gm rushing (#3 SEC)
McCluster - 198 yards/gm all-purpose (#1 SEC)
Schaeffer - not in the top-10 total offense
Willis - 11 tackles/gm (#2 SEC)
Little - 56 yards/gm rushing (#7 SEC)
Burton - 196 yards /gm all-purpose (#2 SEC)
Little - 149.5 yards/gm all-purpose (#4 SEC)
Burton - 103.5 yards/gm rcvg. (#3 SEC)
Lyons - 4 TD receptions in 5 touches
Woodson - 172.2 passer rating (#4 SEC)
Woodyard - 10 tackles/gm (#5 SEC)
Statistically, UK is better in each of the categories listed above. While things look even on D, UK, while facing an inferior I-AA opponent, improved dramatically in week two on D. Ole Miss' D was horrid in both the Memphis and Missouri contests. Offensively, UK showed promise against UofL and broke out against Texas State. Ole Miss looked good against Memphis, but managed just 163 yards against Mizzou. I think the key stat is 3rd down defense. Ole Miss can't get off the field on 3rd down allowing teams to convert 53.3% of the time while the 'Cats allow opposing offenses to convert 37% of the time. This could prove to be Ole Miss' undoing on Saturday night. The other key factor will UK's offensive weapons (Little, Dixon, Burton, and Lyons) lead by Woodson against the poor Ole Miss D. Sagarin favors the 'Cats by 6; the early Vegas line has the 'Cats by 2.5. I think UK covers easily, winning by 22. UK 42, Ole Miss 20.
Scoring Offense
UK 34.5 OM 17.5
Scoring Defense
UK 33.0 OM 29.5
Total Offense
UK 342.5 OM 249.5
Total Defense
UK 420.5 OM 422.5
3rd Down Efficiency
UK 37% OM 26.1%
3rd Down Defense
UK 37% OM 53.3%
Green-Ellis - 98 yards/gm rushing (#3 SEC)
McCluster - 198 yards/gm all-purpose (#1 SEC)
Schaeffer - not in the top-10 total offense
Willis - 11 tackles/gm (#2 SEC)
Little - 56 yards/gm rushing (#7 SEC)
Burton - 196 yards /gm all-purpose (#2 SEC)
Little - 149.5 yards/gm all-purpose (#4 SEC)
Burton - 103.5 yards/gm rcvg. (#3 SEC)
Lyons - 4 TD receptions in 5 touches
Woodson - 172.2 passer rating (#4 SEC)
Woodyard - 10 tackles/gm (#5 SEC)
Statistically, UK is better in each of the categories listed above. While things look even on D, UK, while facing an inferior I-AA opponent, improved dramatically in week two on D. Ole Miss' D was horrid in both the Memphis and Missouri contests. Offensively, UK showed promise against UofL and broke out against Texas State. Ole Miss looked good against Memphis, but managed just 163 yards against Mizzou. I think the key stat is 3rd down defense. Ole Miss can't get off the field on 3rd down allowing teams to convert 53.3% of the time while the 'Cats allow opposing offenses to convert 37% of the time. This could prove to be Ole Miss' undoing on Saturday night. The other key factor will UK's offensive weapons (Little, Dixon, Burton, and Lyons) lead by Woodson against the poor Ole Miss D. Sagarin favors the 'Cats by 6; the early Vegas line has the 'Cats by 2.5. I think UK covers easily, winning by 22. UK 42, Ole Miss 20.
